CEEW-CEF Trends
CEEW-CEF Market Handbook
The CEEW-CEF Market Handbook aims to help investors, executives and policymakers with evidence-based decision making by identifying and analysing trends critical to India’s energy transition.
India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Key Findings
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Total generation in Q3 FY24 was significantly up by 13.5% compared to Q3 FY23 and decreased by 10.5% compared to Q2 FY24 owing to lower-than-expected rainfall in October 2023 and above normal temperatures in November 2023, resulting in hot weather conditions versus the same period previous fiscal year.
- October: Up by 24.6%
- November: Up by 10.5%
- September: Up by 5.8%
- Total Q3 FY24: Up by 13.5%
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In Q3 FY24, RE generation increased significantly by 26.6% versus the same quarter in the previous fiscal year (Q3 FY23). Coal/lignite-based generation was up by 19.6%; however, hydro decreased by 29.7% for the same period.
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From an average daily generation perspective, the RE and coal/lignite share increased in Q3 FY24 compared to Q3 FY23, whereas the hydro share significantly decreased.
- RE: Share up from 10.4% to 11.6%
- Hydro: Share down from 10.3% to 6.4%
- RE + Hydro: Share down from 20.6% to 18.0%
- Coal/lignite: Share up from 74.9% to 76.9%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
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In Q3 FY24, most listed RE stocks and the Sensex recorded strong upward trends compared to Q2 FY24.
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The share price of RE developer Adani Green Energy was up by 61.78%, while Sterling and Wilson recorded an increase of 19.95% as of December 2023 (vs September 2023).
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The wind developer-manufacturers continued to record strong upward trends throughout Q3 FY24. The share price of wind developer–manufacturers Inox Wind was up by 158.87%, whereas Suzlon Energy’s share price was up by 48.06% at the end of December 2023 (vs September 2023).
Figure 2: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month.
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Further, as per an RBI notification, SGrBs in FY24 were designated as 'specified securities' under the fully accessible route, allowing all NRIs to buy these securities.
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The repo rate and reverse repo rate remained constant throughout Q3 FY24.
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In December 2023, the SBI MCLR (1-year) rate was increased slightly to 8.65% after remaining constant at 8.55% since July 2023.
Figure 3: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control and BondEvalue.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month; * Current yield.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month; * Current yield.
Key Indicators
Share of RE in Q3 FY24
11.6%
Up from 10.4% in Q3 FY23
Capacity auctioned
8.84 GW
in Q3 FY24
Amount overdue to power producers as of June 2023
INR 75,535 crore
Reduced by 17% from March 2023
Market concentration for RE auctioned capacity
54%
in Q3 FY24
Author's Name
Riddhi Mukherjee
Research Analyst
Ruchita Shah
Programme Associate
For queries reach out to author
Tags
Clean Energy Investments
Discoms
Energy Storage
Energy Transition
EV
Green Bonds
Power Markets
RE Auctions
RE Developers