India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Key Findings
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Total generation in Q1 FY24 was slightly up by 5.8% compared to Q1 FY23and 8.7% compared to Q4 FY23 due to subdued heat wave days.
- April: Up by 4.0%
- May: Up by 4.7%
- June: Up by 8.7%
- Total Q1 FY24: Up by 5.8%
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In Q1 FY24, RE generation increased slightly by 2.5% versus the same quarter in the previous fiscal year (Q1 FY23). Coal/lignite-based generation was up by 8.2%, however, hydro decreased by 9.9% for the same period.
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From an average daily generation perspective, the share of RE and hydro decreased, whereas coal/lignite share increased in Q1 FY24 compared to Q1 FY23.
- RE: Share slightly down from 12.9% to 12.4%
- Hydro: Share down from 10.0% to 8.4%
- RE + Hydro: down from 22.9% to 20.8%
- Coal/lignite: Share up from 74.3% to 75.0%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
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The overdue amount payable by discoms to power producers reduced by 17% to INR 75,535 crore in June 2023 from INR 91,061 crore in March 2023.
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From a payment delay standpoint, as of June 2023, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Jammu & Kashmir were among the states with the highest legacy dues.
Figure 2: Discom payable and receivable days for RE rich states
Source: UDAY portal (based on data disclosed by discoms as of 31 March 2022).
*Data not available for these states; values derived from 2019–20/ 2020–21 financial reports.
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In Q1 FY24, most listed RE stocks and the Sensex trended upwards.
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The share price of the pure-play RE developer, Adani Green Energy, was up by 7.26% as of June 2023 (vs March 2023). The share price of Borosil Renewables, which holds a near monopoly position in India’s solar panel glass manufacturing, was up by 23.15% as of June 2023 (vs March 2023).
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The stock prices of wind developer–manufacturers Inox Wind and Suzlon Energy were up by 64.76% and 93.67% in June 2023 (vs March 2023), respectively.
Figure 3: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month.
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In Q1 FY24, two green bonds were issued by RE developers ReNew Power and SAEL limited.
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In May 2023, India’s leading power financier, REC, undertook an exclusive listing of green bonds worth USD 750 million at the GIFT International Finance Services Center (IFSC) Stock Exchanges in Gandhinagar.
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Key bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury bond yield and NTPC’s 10-year bond yield, fluctuated throughout the quarter.
Figure 4: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control and BondEvalue.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month; * Current yield.