India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Key Findings
  • Total electricity generation was up by 10.4% in FY24 compared to FY23. Contributing factors included lower-than-expected rainfall in August 2023 and October 2023, hot weather conditions and above normal temperatures in November 2023, and severe cold days with below-normal temperatures during the winter months in North India.
    • Q1: Up by 5.8%
    • Q2: Up by 14.7%
    • Q3: Up by 13.5%
    • Q4: Up by 7.8%
    • Total FY24: Up by 10.4%
  • Overall RE generation in FY24 increased by 9.5%, large hydro generation sharply fell by 16.3%, whereas coal/lignite generation grew significantly by 14.0% (versus FY23).
  • From an average daily generation perspective, coal/lignite share increased, whereas RE and hydro share declined in FY24 compared to FY23.
    • RE: Share down from 11.8% to 11.7%
    • Hydro: Share down from 11.0% to 8.3%
    • RE + Hydro: Share down from 22.8% to 20.0%
    • Coal/lignite: Share up from 73.1% to 75.4%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
  • As of January 2024, legacy dues# of discoms to generating companies reduced to INR 49,451 crore from INR 91,061 crore in 2022. All current dues of generating companies are up-to-date as of 31 January, 2024.
  • Under the RDSS scheme, 10.67 million prepaid smart consumer meters, 0.03 million smart DT meters and 0.01 million smart feeder meters have been installed across 28 states/UTs.
  • As per the performance of the power utilities report 2022-23, pan-India AT&C losses stood at 15.4% vs 16.5% in 2021-22. 12 utilities (out of 53) received A+ grading in FY23.
Figure 2: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
Note: Share prices are the last traded value in each month
  • In the second half of FY24, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) concluded four sovereign green bond (SGrB) auctions worth INR 20,000 crore. The SGrB offerings were (a) 5-year (New SGrB 2028), (b) 10-year (New SGrB 2033) and (c) 30-year (New SGrB 2054 and 7.37% SGrB 2054). Apart from the 7.37% GOI SGrB 2054, all other offerings’ coupon rates were yield-based which after auctions came out to be 7.25%, 7.24% and 7.37%, respectively. All the SGrB offerings were oversubscribed.
  • In January 2024, State Bank of India raised USD 250 million through the issuance of green bonds. This floating rate green bond, issued under SBI’s USD 10 billion medium-term note programme, will mature on 29 December, 2028.
  • In FY24, the repo rate remained pegged at 6.5%. The SBI MCLR (1-year) rate was increased by 50 basis points twice in FY24, from 8.5% April 2024 to 8.65% in March 2024.
  • Key bond yields, including the 10-year treasury and Adani Green’s 5-year bond yields, fluctuated throughout the year and remained on a downward trend since October 2023.
Figure 3: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control, and BondEvalue. *Current yield.
Note: Bond prices are the last traded value in each month.

Key Indicators
Share of RE in FY24
11.7%
down from 11.8% in FY23
Capacity auctioned
40.56 GW
in FY24
Legacy dues overdue to power producers as of January 2024
INR 49,451 crore
Down by 46% from March 2023
Market concentration for RE auctioned capacity
67%
in FY24
Author's Name
Riddhi Mukherjee
Research Analyst
Ruchita Shah
Programme Associate
For queries reach out to author
[email protected]
Tags
Clean Energy Investments
Discoms
Energy Storage
Energy Transition
EV
Green Bonds
Power Markets
RE Auctions
RE Developers