As per the initial results of Dr Guss Velders’ global HFC emissions study, Chinese HFC emissions will be 31% of global HFC emissions in 2050, while India’s share will be 7%. Looking at the growth trajectory of future Chinese emissions, we see that a large part of Chinese HFC emissions will happen before 2030.
However, if we look at future Indian HFC emissions, we find that most of the emissions happen after2030. The same is true for other large and rapidly developing countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan.In fact, in the African nations, HFC emissions might start growing in a big way only beyond 2045-50. The potential growth trajectories of HFC emissions in different countries is a very nuanced yet critical piece of information.
Grouping China with India and other economies implies that any assessment of HFC mitigation for overall Article 5 grouping will hide the implications for different countries within this grouping. In the future, there will be more analysis of the implications of different amendment proposals. It is important for all these assessments to highlight the differential impact of respective proposals on China, India and other major developing countries for informing policy research and the international negotiations process.
Read Policy Brief: China’s role in Global HFC emissions matters for phase-down proposals